Transnational and domestic organised crime is never to be taken lightly. A global – and growing – threat to societies, safety, development, the environment, and to democracy itself, organised crime is big business for those who know how to profit from it.
“In 2009 it was estimated to generate $870-billion – an amount equal to 1.5% of global GDP,” says the UN Office on Drugs and Crime. “That is more than six times the amount of official development assistance for that year, and the equivalent of close to 7% of the world’s exports of merchandise.”
A decade and a half later, things have become much worse. South Africans are keenly aware of the way organised crime moves through our society, because they are the ones who bear the greatest burden because of unchecked criminal activity. The so-called taxi, tobacco, construction, water and other mafias have profited massively from taxpayers’ money and from extorting residents in various ways – such as targeting shop owners and demanding protection money or payment to avert damage to their shops because of action against foreign nationals who may be employed there.
And most recently, the scandalous allegations of the infiltration of organised crime into key criminal justice institutions and services, right up to the highest ranks of our police service, finally roused government into action – after civil society had tried for years to get the sleeping giant to awaken. As far back as 2019, CW and the Institute for Security Studies, in their joint submission to the Zondo commission, highlighted how organised crime had flourished during the years of state capture, and the extent to which criminal justice agencies were manipulated for political and personal gain.
Those allegations are now the subject of two simultaneous inquiry processes – the Madlanga commission, and the parliamentary ad hoc commission.
Speaking before the latter meeting on 11 November, national director of public prosecutions Shamila Batohi said: “Crime is ravaging our country, and it seems like we are watching this movie in front of us in slow motion, and those of us in power who should be doing something about it are powerless to do anything about it.”
Organised crime is a big business risk, she said, and South Africa is not alone in seeing that criminals try to secure the protection of politicians, of prosecutors, of police officers. “It happens all across the world. So we are vulnerable to that kind of risk.”
Organised crime is reorganising
In light of these disturbing revelations, it is opportune that the Global Initiative on Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC) has recently released the third edition of its Global Organized Crime Index (OCI). “Organised crime is undermining democracy, the sovereignty of states, and even international peace and security. The rules-based order that has prevailed for decades is now being exploited by those who don’t play by the rules. Criminal groups are some of the biggest profiteers.”
The first edition came out in 2021. Now with five years of data to work with, the organisation can more accurately analyse the global situation, identify the gaps, and make proposals to address them. The index is built on two main components: criminality, and resilience to organised crime. Criminality itself comprises two elements: the scope, scale, and impact of specific criminal markets, and the structure and influence of criminal actors.
Research into these factors is used to assign each country a criminality score and a resilience score. Both components are scored by experts based on data collected and research carried out, as well as on their own knowledge and expertise.
This year’s OCI shows that organised crime is not only expanding – it is reorganising. “Resilience is not keeping pace with criminality, yet the findings pinpoint where concrete steps can close this dangerous and widening gap.”
Furthermore, says GI-TOC, the world is at a crossroads when it comes to dealing with illicit economies, with many showing surges of growth while resilience takes a beating, lagging behind evolving crime threats.
The index also reveals several shifts in the global criminal economy. “For example, synthetic drugs and cocaine are rapidly dominating world drug markets … At the same time, this index shows a significant and rapidly growing trend: a rise in non-violent forms of crime such as financial and cyber-dependent crimes.”
Despite the absence of violence in these illicit economies, the index notes, they still cause untold harm. “Financial fraud and cyber-dependent crimes have high costs for their victims – individuals, businesses and states. Counterfeiting, another silent crime, is also becoming more pervasive.”
South Africa
As with many other countries, and probably predictably for South Africans reading this, it’s not good news. Compared to the 2023 situation, the country’s criminality score has risen by 0.25 points to 7.43, on a scale of one to 10. In 2021 – the index’s first edition – the criminality score was 6.63 and in 2023 it was 7.18.
This puts South Africa at seventh in the world in terms of criminality. Out of 54 African countries, South Africa is second and regionally, the country tops the list of Southern African countries.
Unsurprisingly, the breakdown of this score shows a significant rise in criminal markets, from 6.87 in 2023 to 7.17 in 2025 – after starting in 2021 at 6.00. The subcategories of flora crimes and cyber-dependent crimes showed the biggest jump, each showing a rise of 1.00 from 2023 – in essence growing by 10%.
The resilience score has also risen marginally, from 5.63 in 2023 to 5.67. In 2021 it was 5.79, so there has not been much movement in terms of resilience.
South Africa is 44th of 193 countries in terms of resilience, and third of the 54 African countries. Interestingly, it is also top of the list in terms of resilience in the Southern African region.
South Africa’s organised crime landscape features criminal networks deeply entrenched in a range of illicit markets, often overlapping with mafia-style groups. “These networks are instrumental in the trafficking of drugs, arms, and counterfeit goods, as well as engaging in cybercrime and environmental crimes. Their adaptability allows them to exploit regulatory weaknesses, enabling a high level of operational flexibility.”
Extortion is a core activity of these groups, with diversification into vehicle hijacking and armed robberies, reflecting the fluid nature of their operations.
“South Africa’s criminal networks maintain strong transnational ties, particularly in the trafficking of narcotics, firearms, and contraband goods. These networks collaborate with foreign actors, facilitating the smuggling of illicit commodities across borders and reinforcing their influence in global criminal enterprises.”
Furthermore, as South Africans follow the revelations of the Madlanga commission and parliamentary ad hoc committee into police criminality, they will not be surprised to learn that the OCI names state-embedded criminal actors as a significant challenge in the country, with corruption permeating various levels of governance.
“The legacy of state capture and systemic graft has left many state institutions vulnerable to criminal infiltration. Political corruption is particularly pronounced at municipal level, where criminal actors have embedded themselves in local government structures to influence state contracts and financial flows.”
Politically motivated assassinations also feature strongly on the organised crime landscape, while law enforcement agencies are singled out for their implication in criminal activity.
“Political leadership in South Africa has increasingly recognised the severity of organised crime, yet government responses are largely reactionary,” states the OCI. “Rhetoric against organised crime is common but effective implementation of long-term strategies has been inconsistent.”
Despite these worrying results – not just for South Africa, but for the world over – the OCI data shows where concrete steps can be taken to close this dangerous and widening gap between criminality and resilience, says GI-TOC.
It also shows how criminality responds and adapts to its environment, and importantly, where responses have been successful and where they have fallen short, and accordingly, is a valuable tool to effect change.
